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07 Nov 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 97.5 to 98.0 between September and October.

This increase is the largest one month increase in the index since 2001.  The index rose sharply as the official unemployment rate edged down to 5.8% and full-time employment has increased by over one million over the past two months.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  The Welch Index is about 2.1% higher than it was one year ago.  In other words employment grew about 2.1% faster than the rate of growth in the adult population over the past year.  The last time the Index was 98.0 was January of 2009, President Obama’s first month in office.

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03 Oct 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 97.3 to 97.5 between August and September as the official unemployment rate fell below 6% and full-time employment increased by 671,000 – the largest one month increase in two and a half years.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.

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09 Sep 2014

The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.0% to 6.1% in the past three years, but the official jobless rate under-estimates labor market slack because jobless workers who have given up looking for work are not counted as unemployed.  Five years into an economic recovery today’s unemployment rate is historically high, after accounting for the changing demographics of the U.S. labor force.  While the unemployment rate is just 0.1% higher than it was 35 years ago, when President Jimmy Carter had an approval rating of just 33%, this difference understates the weakness of today’s labor market in comparison to 6% unemployment rates in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

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05 Sep 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.2 to 97.3, between June and July as the official unemployment rate decreased slightly from 6.2% to 6.1%.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been roughly constant over the past five months.  The Welch Index is about 1.1% higher than it was one year ago.  In the past year full-time employment has increased by about 2.2 million, while part-time employment has declined by 100,000.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

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05 Aug 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.1 to 97.2, between June and July.  While the official unemployment rate increased slightly from 6.1% to 6.2%, full-time employment increased by 285,000 in the household survey in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been steady since March.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

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28 Jul 2014

For more in-depth analysis and description of methodology, click here.

The easy availability of government data on the internet allows unprecedented access to a vast array of information that can be useful for policy-related research. Readers, however, should view empirical research that has not been subjected to peer-review with a skeptical eye.  Empirical evidence that purports to repudiate the law of demand should be scrutinized especially carefully.

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03 Jul 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index declined slightly, from 97.3 to 97.1, between May and June.  While the headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment figures showed substantial job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate in June, full-time employment actually dropped in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that despite the relatively strong increase in total employment reported by the BLS over the past few months, full-time equivalent employment, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, has not changed since March.  

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