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05 Dec 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index dropped slightly from 98 to 97.9 in November.  The index fell because employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey, registered a seasonally-adjusted increase of just 4,000 workers between October and November.  

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03 Oct 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 97.3 to 97.5 between August and September as the official unemployment rate fell below 6% and full-time employment increased by 671,000 – the largest one month increase in two and a half years.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.

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09 Sep 2014

The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.0% to 6.1% in the past three years, but the official jobless rate under-estimates labor market slack because jobless workers who have given up looking for work are not counted as unemployed.  Five years into an economic recovery today’s unemployment rate is historically high, after accounting for the changing demographics of the U.S. labor force.  While the unemployment rate is just 0.1% higher than it was 35 years ago, when President Jimmy Carter had an approval rating of just 33%, this difference understates the weakness of today’s labor market in comparison to 6% unemployment rates in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

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