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Welch Consulting Employment Index Rises in September

Posted by Super User
on 14 October 2018

The Welch Consulting Employment Index regained most of the ground it lost in August, advancing to 101.6 in September. The index is sitting close to recent highs for the decade, set in July. This month’s advance is reflected in both the index for women and the index.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004. 

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 101.1 to 101.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.5% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index rose from 101.2 in March to 101.6 currently. The rate of change over the past year is slower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.1% per year. The most recent six months show a trend faster than the past year, but slower than the past three years.

In September the index for women increased from 104.1 to 104.6, just one-tenth of a point shy of its all-time high set in July. This is up from 103.9 a year ago. The index for men increased 0.2 points, from 99.1 last month, to 99.3. The index for men is up 0.4 points from its year ago value of 98.9. Over the last three years the index for women is up 4.4 points while the index for men is up 2.3 points.

 

Welch Employment Index September 2018

Welch Employment Index by Gender September 2018

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.