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Welch Consulting Employment Index Holds Steady in November

For the fourth month in a row The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 99.6, which it reached in August, up from 99.4 in July.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.6 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.4% below its level in the base year of 2004.  

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.6 to 99.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.0% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.1 in May 2016 to 99.6 currently – a moderate increase of 0.5%. This rate of change is in line with the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

The index for women diverged in November from that for men. Women saw a modest decrease in employment in November, falling 0.1 from 102.0 to 101.9. The index for men rose from 97.7 to 97.9. The combined index is sitting at its highest level in over four years. The index for men and the index for men both sit just 0.1 points below their respective recent peaks. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 1.0 points and the index for women has risen 1.1 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.