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Re: Mar '15: No Change in the Welch Consulting Employment Index in March

The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 98.3 in March.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  A constant index from February to March means that full-time equivalent employment grew at the same rate as the adult population in the past month.  Read More

The Welch Index is about 1.1% higher than it was one year ago, and has grown at about the same 1.1% annual rate over the past two years.  Full-time equivalent employment has been increasing about 1.1% faster than adult population growth over the past two years (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population).  The Welch Index of 98.3 indicates that full-time equivalent employment is 1.7% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  

The Welch Consulting Employment Index for women decreased from 100.1 to 99.9.  The Welch Index for men increased from 96.9 to 97.0 as seasonally adjusted full-time employment of men increased by 190,000 in the past month.  Both the men’s index and the women’s index have increased by 1.1% in the past year.  While women have recovered most of the job losses suffered during the recession of 2008 and 2009, the men’s index is still 3% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.